Drought persists in Central Texas; 2008 was most severe since 1917-18

LCRA: Drought Monitor - Updated June 11 – Despite near to above normal rainfall in March and April, a very serious drought remains in place over all of Central Texas, including the Texas Hill Country.


In April, rain totals of 6 to 8 inches occurred over parts of the Hill Country while totals of 10 to 15 inches occurred over parts of Fayette and Colorado counties. Elsewhere, totals were generally between 2 and 4 inches.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, these rains eased drought conditions enough to show small improvement in our classification, but the rains weren’t nearly enough to have a significant impact on the overall drought.

So far in 2009, rainfall has been near normal across the Hill Country but totals have been below normal at most other locations. With soils dry from a year and a half of drought, much of the recent rains soaked into the ground, producing little runoff into area lakes and aquifers. As a result, their levels remain low and mostly unchanged from a month ago. Although the landscape is green from recent rains, soil moisture is still low, lake and aquifer levels are low, and large long-term rainfall deficits persist.

The year 2008 turned out to be one of the driest years on record and the driest year experienced since the mid-1950s. Rainfall was generally 16 to 20 inches below normal. According to the state climatologist, drought conditions across Central Texas during 2008 were the most severe since the drought of 1917-1918. It is estimated it will take several periods of heavy, soaking rain to cause a significant improvement in drought conditions.

As shown in the map above from the National Drought Monitor, most of Central Texas, the eastern Hill Country and the coastal plains region are now experiencing “extreme” drought (the red area), the third worst of the four categories of drought. Across the western and northern Hill Country, drought conditions have generally improved to the moderate to severe categories.

The latest from Bob Rose, LCRA Chief Meteorologist

Weather trends and long-range weather forecasts indicate the persistent dry pattern that has gripped the region for so long may be easing. More frequent periods of rain and storms are expected the remainder of May and into June. The recent weak La Niña weather phenomenon, which typically causes drier than normal weather conditions across most of Texas in the fall and winter, has ended and conditions in the tropical Pacific have returned to neutral. Periods of rain and storms should continue across the region over the next couple of months. Still, there’s no clear end to the drought expected in the near future. Recent forecast data shows a trend toward El Niño late summer into fall. El Niño patterns typically cause wetter than normal conditions across most of Texas during the fall and winter months. More information is available at Bob Rose's weather blog.